David Marrinan-Hayes

I spend my time researching and writing deep-dive reports on the future of industries and economies. Each report extends 10-25 years depending on the sector—mapping regulatory pathways, technology maturation, market evolution, and what it all means for decisions being made today.

My work is for CEOs navigating industry transformation, investors evaluating long-cycle opportunities, and policy makers drafting frameworks for technologies that won’t mature for years. I give them the context they need to make defensible long-term choices.

I also write The Long Horizon, a weekly newsletter that looks past the headlines to trace the long-term implications of current events.

Why I care about this: Most strategic planning fails because the tools available are broken. Consulting stops at three years. Futurists offer moonshots untethered from reality. The gap between these extremes leaves decision-makers flying blind on the choices that matter most. I built Hayes to fill that gap.

I’ve spent over 30 years analyzing how technology, regulation, and market forces reshape industries. Before founding Hayes, I held roles in digital strategy and media innovation, where I developed expertise in understanding how emerging technologies disrupt established business models.

For the first third of my career I worked in publishing both as a writer and editor starting from an internship at Condé Nast via the BBC to being deputy editor of the world’s largest LGBT magazine.

For the second third of my career I worked in operational digital roles running both editorial and commercial digital operations for some of the UK’s largest publishing and hospitality brands.

Before leaving employment I spent the final third of my career in senior leadership positions in a number of digital start-ups leading strategy, M&A and turnaround programs.

Each Hayes report represents 4-6 months of research: regulatory mapping, technology assessment, market analysis, expert interviews, and scenario planning. I don’t do commissioned work or consulting projects. This keeps the analysis independent and ensures I’m optimizing for truth, not client satisfaction.

I’m based in Madrid, where I spend most days reading regulatory documents, tracking technology development, and writing. When I’m not working, I’m probably walking my dogs, traveling to emerging markets, or convincing people that thinking 25 years ahead isn’t actually crazy.

The future isn’t unknowable—it’s just ignored. Most of what will happen over the next 10-25 years is already in motion. Regulatory frameworks are being drafted. Technology maturation curves are observable. Market dynamics have historical patterns. The information exists if you’re willing to do the work. I believe rigorous long-horizon analysis, delivered clearly, is one of the most valuable services anyone can provide to leaders navigating transformation. And I believe that being independent—no vendor relationships, no consulting conflicts, no follow-on engagements to sell—is the only way to do that work honestly.

Hayes research maps what’s coming, not what I wish would happen. This distinction matters because some of the trends I analyze—expanding surveillance capabilities, climate-driven displacement, technological unemployment—are developments I personally oppose.

My job is to understand the trajectory of these forces, their implications for industries and economies, and what decision-makers should do about them. Analysis requires objectivity. Assessment includes judgment. I do both, and I’m clear about which is which.

Hayes operates without external funding, consulting relationships, or commissioned research agreements. This section details financial interests and potential conflicts.

Hayes operates without external funding, consulting relationships, or commissioned research agreements. This section details financial interests and potential conflicts.

If you have questions about potential conflicts or believe I should disclose additional information, contact me at david@readhayes.com.